Are Democrats stealing US presidential election through illegal immigrants?

In the battleground of American democracy, where every vote can tip the scales, the stakes are higher than ever. In some swing states, the margin between a winner and a loser can be as narrow as 20,000 votes. This tension has led leaders and supporters of the Republican Party to raise alarm about the potential for illegal immigrants being naturalised as citizens just in time for the November 5 elections. They argue that this influx could sway the electorate toward the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, capitalising on the belief that newly naturalised voters typically lean Democratic.
The rate of naturalisation of immigrants in the US in 2024 is the highest in 10 years. And some swing states are seeing a high level of new citizens.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his supporters are saying this might lead to gains for the Democrats in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The latest opinion survey, conducted by AtlasIntel, shows Trump leading in two swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which together account for 33 electoral votes.
A New York Times poll of battleground states showed Trump was narrowly ahead in three swing states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
However, the slim leads for Trump could get upstaged during real voting in these swing states.
In this tough fight for swing states or battleground states, the Republican supporters are claiming that the Democrats are fast-tracking citizenship applications of ‘illegal immigrants’ and naturalising them to sway the votes in battleground states.
Several reports are claiming that the naturalisation rates in some of the swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin have crossed each state’s 2020 presidential vote margin.
“You look at the maths there, and you can ascertain that if people were engaged, they would have a decisive impact in the election,” Nicole Melaku, executive director of National Partnership for New Americans (NPNA), told NPR. “You can take any part of the country, and you can see what role immigrants and naturalised voters would play in this year’s election,” Melaku said.
Generally, green-card holders or lawful permanent residents who have been in the US or have been married to a US citizen for at least three years become naturalised citizens.
Trump and some of his biggest supporters like Elon Musk are claiming that the Democrats are naturalising “asylum seekers” to gain votes. Musk claimed it could be the last election in American history if the Democrats won.
“The Biden/Harris administration has been flying “asylum seekers”, who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election,” said Musk, the CEO of Tesla Motors and owner of X.
Many of these naturalised citizens live in the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
“They won’t admit it. They will describe it as naturalisation is the ultimate goal, and we want people to become Americansâ€æ but it’s always a political tactic to get more citizens with the assumption they will vote for you,” Lora Ries, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Centre, told Fox News.
Nearly 4 million immigrants have gained citizenship in the US since 2020, according to government figures.
The current pace of naturalisation has not been seen since 2013 and 2014, reported the New York Times. Around 3.3 million immigrants have become citizens during Biden’s tenure, it said.
In some swing states, these naturalised citizens might make a difference.
“In Arizona, we keep talking about how there’s a 10,000-vote margin of victory,” NPNA’s Nicole Melaku told NPR, pointing towards Joe Biden’s win in Arizona in 2020 by 10,457 votes.
“That vote share is growing and if people make sure that [naturalised] folks engage in this year’s election, they can make a significant difference,” Melaku added.
Another poll released by the National Partnership for New Americans highlighted how 76% of the naturalised citizens from the swing states and Democrat-leaning California said they would vote.
“Over 40% of naturalised voters in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia call themselves Democrats, as well as more than a third of voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida,” read the NPR report.
According to a Los Angeles Times report, some naturalised citizens are Democratic-leaning.
Now, the US is processing citizenship applications at a much quicker rate.
The average time for processing a citizenship certificate has decreased from 11.5 months in 2021 to 4.9 months in 2024, according to US Citizenship and Immigration Services data through July 31.
This was reportedly done to hasten the process after many applications had been accumulated after the pandemic.
However, this addition of immigrants at a high rate could be reshaping voting dynamics.
“The surge in naturalisation efficiency isn’t just about clearing backlogs; it’s potentially reshaping the electorate, merely months before a pivotal election,” said Xiao Wang, chief executive of Boundless, a company which analyses immigration trends, told the NYT.
“Every citizenship application could be a vote that decides Senate seats or even the presidency,” Wang added.
While the naturalisation process might be reshaping voter dynamics and could benefit Democrats, the Republicans are also trying to stir this illegal immigration fear among voters.
Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov, who lives in New York, said Elon Musk was trying to “panic racists”.
“Instead of worrying about the 50% of eligible US voters who don’t vote, or Trump, who literally tried to cancel out the last election with violence, he’s trying to panic racists over immigrants voting someday. Which is normal and good and an American strength for centuries,” said Kasparov.
Reports say that different groups among the naturalised voters vote for different parties and that naturalised Americans are not a homogenous category. So, even as the US gives citizenship at a decade-high rate, with a chunk of those new voters leaning Democrat, there is no guarantee that most of those voters will vote for Democrats. However, the voting dynamics in the swing states are seeing a change, and might end up determining the outcome.